Polymarket Betters Give Biden a 46% Chance of Dropping Out by November

Polymarket Betters Give Biden a 46% Chance of Dropping Out by November

Punters on the decentralized blockchain betting site Polymarket have upped the odds President Joe Biden will drop out of the race before the U.S. presidential election in November.

Traders now estimate a 46% chance Biden will withdraw his nomination, up from 19% on Thursday, following last week’s first presidential debate against former President Donald Trump.

Criticism is being levied against the 81-year-old’s ability to secure another term due to his age. A shaky performance during the first CNN-hosted debate against Trump on Thursday did little to assuage those concerns.


At times, Biden appeared to struggle with his sentences, slur his speech, and even get drawn into bizarre antics over who is the better golfer.

Trump, by contrast, appeared composed, hammering points he’s become known for, including on immigration and foreign policy while taking jabs at Biden’s missteps.

“I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence,” Trump said of Biden on immigration. “I don’t think he knows what he said either.”

A CBS News and YouGov poll conducted on Friday and Saturday after the debate showed only 28% of registered voters support Biden’s candidacy, with 72% opposing his presidential run.

On Sunday, leading Democratic figures and major donors rallied behind President Biden as the party’s nominee, seeking to counter growing calls for his withdrawal, the Wall Street Journal reported.

President Biden, three and a half years older than Trump, spent the day at Camp David on Sunday with First Lady Jill Biden and family.

During informal discussions, his family urged him to continue his reelection campaign, presenting a united front and strong consensus for him to continue the race, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Crypto as an election issue

Last week, Polymarket traders punted on a 61% chance Trump would raise Bitcoin or crypto during Thursday’s debate.

While topics including states’ rights to abortion, foreign policy, healthcare, the environment, and adhering to democratic processes took center stage, there was no mention of crypto.

Crypto has become an election issue following the former president’s endorsement of the asset class during a Mar-a-Lago event for holders of his Trump-themed NFTs last month. Since then, Trump has started accepting crypto donations and has called for increased Bitcoin production in the U.S.

By contrast, Biden-appointed Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler has been heavily criticized for what the crypto industry views as a harmful approach to regulation through litigation.

“Trump’s acceptance and embrace of crypto are in stark contrast with the overwhelmingly regressive approach to crypto taken by the Biden administration,” Edward Wilson, analyst at Nansen, told Decrypt. “Many US-based supporters place crypto as a key issue for them and are fed up with the approach of going after good actors in the space, like Coinbase and Uniswap.”

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