Bitcoin Price Rally To $79K Would Make Spot ETF Holders Whole Again
Bitcoin (BTC) is closing in on its average entry price for US spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors at $79,900. The narrowing gap between Bitcoin’s market price and the ETF holders’ cost basis coincides with onchain data that shows early signs of accelerated buying from investors.
Bitcoin ETF breakeven level nears key trend test
Bitcoin’s sustained price rally above $70,000 puts a key investor cohort back in focus. The ETF cost basis level acted as support in mid-2024, and a break above this level brings many ETF holders closer to breakeven.
The flow data adds further context to this shift. According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., the ETF flows flipped positive after persistent outflows through mid-February.
The seven-day average has since moved to steady inflows, with daily flows peaking above 3,300 BTC on March 2. The ETF holdings have expanded to 1,291,618 BTC from 1,264,982 BTC, a 26,636 BTC increase over the past month.
Investors’ ETF cost basis also aligns with a key daily trend. A decisive move through this range marks a reclaim of the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart for the first time since October 2025.
A move above the 100-day EMA signals a shift into a long-term uptrend, which also reinforces the bullish momentum. It also serves as a key trend filter where sustained price action above it often leads to continued upside gains.
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Bitcoin buyers begin to outpace sellers
The order flow across major exchanges shows a gradual shift in market behavior. Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that the 30-day volume delta on Binance and Coinbase has turned positive after sustained selling pressure in February. Both the retail and institutional flows are now collectively skewing toward accumulation.
Bitcoin’s futures data reinforces this trend. Amr Taha noted that Binance’s cumulative volume delta (CVD) has rebounded by nearly $6 billion from its lows, tracking a rise in aggressive market buying since BTC traded near $63,000.
The metric remains below zero, though a significant portion of earlier sell pressure has now been absorbed during the recovery.
CryptoQuant data shows that short-term holder activity also aligns with this shift. The spent-output profit ratio (SOPR) metric, which shows whether coins are sold at a profit or loss, has moved back above 1, signaling that the selling pressure has eased and coins are now trading around or above their cost. Analyst miracleyoon said,
“While this capitulation was not as severe as the August 5, 2024, event (which saw SOPR approach ~0.9), the series of recent capitulation signals appears sufficient to have flushed out weak hands.”
The data suggests that Bitcoin remains on track to test the $80,000 level, but a move above the key breakeven zone may determine the strength and direction of the trend in the coming weeks.
Related: Bitcoin analysis sees $68K support as gold slips at key $5K level
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